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THE SALMON PREDICTION: A REPORT ON THE FISH AND ITS FUTURE

We are experiencing perhaps the worst salmon run ever. The salmon are getting hit with poor conditions in the spawning grounds and again in the open ocean. The Sacramento Fall run of Chinook (or King) salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), numbered nearly 900,000 five years ago, but it was only one tenth of that last year. This year’s estimate is looking to be less than 60,000.

The salmon have a complex life cycle, starting life in a fresh water stream then slowly moving its way down to the ocean over several months. After three to four years of open ocean feeding, the salmon finds its way back to the stream where it was spawned to repeat the cycle. The streambeds need specific conditions for spawning to occur. There needs to be flowing cool water (below 62 degrees) and rocky stream beds free of silt for the eggs to settle. For the trip downstream, they also need shade from overhanging trees for cover from predators and of course sufficient food to plump them up for the journey to the ocean.  

These conditions have been compromised, especially over the last few years. During the last three years, flows have been diverted from the Sacramento River, delta and streams to such an extent (while still being within federal guidelines) that the flows may not have been enough to meet the minimum requirements to sustain the fish. Low flows mean warmer water and not enough power to scour the silt from the streambeds. If the conditions are not right, the salmon will either not lay eggs, or the eggs that are laid will have a smaller chance of survival.

Once out in the open ocean they have also hit upon hard times, where they have met with warmer than normal water temperatures. Warmer waters mean less prey for the salmon to eat. In addition, the wind patterns have not been favorable, resulting in less upwelling of deep oceanic nutrients that feed the critters that the salmon feed on. Again, with the end result being that there is less food for the salmon to eat. So they have had bad conditions going out to sea, bad conditions at sea, and then have trouble making it back up the streams due to low flows and warm temperatures.

This issue is incredibly complex. The causes, while still under investigation, may number over 40. People are working on solutions though. The Pacific Fishery Management Council will probably completely close the salmon fishing season this year. Their decision will be forthcoming at a meeting on the week of April sixth. Nevertheless, even with the fishery completely closed, the number of salmon predicted for this year will still be 50% under the goal set by the council. Certainly, flows down the streams need to be increased, but that will have farmers and cities howling. The council is always trying to balance the needs of agriculture and people with the mandate to provide the endangered salmon with a viable habitat for survival.

However, all of this will not help if no salmon come back from the ocean. More research is needed there to determine reasons for this collapse. The Pacific Fishery Management Council is putting a team together now that will have a report in by early 2009. That will be too late for the nearly one thousand commercial fishermen this year, many of whom will be driven out of business as salmon fishing makes up a majority of their livelihood. Pretty grim indeed.

Reference:
http://www.pcouncil.org/salmon/salpreII08/Preseason_Report_II_2008.pdf

Article submitted by Greg Yost from Mountain View, California